The Corona epidemic, which started in December in China before it turned into a global pandemic last month, poses a major challenge to human societies, both developing and developed, especially Arab societies. The Corona pandemic came and the world is mired in many crises that will intensify during the coming months, and its repercussions will affect the economic and political conditions in addition to health conditions.
The corona pandemic came to most Arab countries during times of upheaval, internal wars, and endless interstate conflicts. The pandemic came while the Gulf states are suffering from a severe division due to the trade embargo imposed on Qatar by two of its partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and in the context of a significant decline in oil prices threatening the economies of GCC countries. Iraq is experiencing political turmoil due to chronic political and financial corruption since the American intervention nearly two decades ago, and Syria suffers from the violence and corruption of the Assad regime, a bloody conflict, and an unprecedented decline in the Syrian economy that puts nearly 80% of Syrians under the poverty line. It came amid political chaos and financial bankruptcy in Lebanon, the accumulation of large debts in Egypt accompanied by unprecedented social inequality, an internal war raging in Libya fueled by Arab and Western ambitions, and a Saudi-Iranian conflict in Yemen that led to widespread ruin in the country. It also came in the context of a trade war between China and the United States, raging for nearly a year.
Within this horrific scene of Arab suffering and self-inflicted destruction, the Corona pandemic came to take lives in countries not prepared to deal with this health crisis administratively, medically and financially. The extent of the loss caused by the pandemic so far is limited, and perhaps the countries most able to deal with it are the Gulf countries that enjoy higher stability and greater financial abundance than the rest of the Arab countries. But the Gulf states face another risk related to the possibility of oil prices continuing at their current low level. The great danger facing Saudi Arabia in particular is due to the decline in national income with the drop in oil prices, while the Yemen war, which is still raging without a clear end, continues unabated due to the mismanagement of the Saudi-Emirati intervention.
The most dangerous repercussions affect the Arab "republics" whose people struggle to escape from the tyranny and corruption of their governments. It is clear that these republics face in the months and and years ahead additional suffering, due to the decline in the social, economic and political conditions, but people may eventually get a great opportunity to get out of the state of tyranny, or at least lessen its grip on power, because of the increasing poverty of their governments, and the reduced possibilities that those governments getting additional external support to continue perpetuating its tyranny and corruption.
The governments of industrial countries are still in better shape than developing countries, but their increasing dependence on debts to maintain their economic and financial superiority carries economic risks that threaten the entire global economy. There are upcoming economic shocks that will increase in size as the length of economic activity decreases due to the spread of the epidemic. Global public and private debts are huge, exceeding $ 250 trillion ($ 250,000,000,000,000). This is indeed a massive debt in excess of three time the global national income.
It is difficult to predict the health consequences of the pandemic and its human and financial implications as we are still in the thick of it, but the loss will be global, and the most effected people are definitely those who live in societies that lack administrative efficiency and political accountability. The greater financial deficit in the budgets of the countries, and the less advanced are they in science and technology, the less prepared are they to deal with the pandemic. Arab countries fall under this category as the scale of the unprecedented challenges they face over the months and possibly years to come is humongous.
Challenges do not usually come alone but come with many opportunities. Who knows, perhaps Arab societies find an opportunity to abandon their deadly conflicts, rid themselves of corruption and the destructive tyranny that threaten their wellbeing and that of the future generations, and enter a new phase that is less destructive, and more constructive and nurturing.
No comments:
Post a Comment